Romeu to the Bench: Good or Bad?

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Of the many signings brought in to Chelsea this summer none have surprised quite as much as Oriol Romeu. The young Spaniard burst onto the scene last fall and saw an extended first-team run during the winter but after a (reportedly minor) injury he has been relegated to the bench. His last start was on January 31st and recently he’s seen back-to-back appearances as an unused substitute under new manager Roberto Di Matteo. So does he deserve to be on the pitch or does he actually belong on the bench? Let’s find out…

Chelsea have a win percentage of 64% in the 22 games Romeu has played in (W14 D6 L2), up from only 37% (W7 D5 L7) in the 19 matches Romeu has not featured.

A pretty substantial difference, Chelsea have seen a 73% increase in their win percentage this season when Romeu has played in any part of a match.

Chelsea have a +23 goal difference in the 22 games Oriol Romeu has played (average goal difference of 1.05 per game), allowing only 18 goals in these games (0.82 goals allowed/game) and scoring 41 goals (1.86/game). In the 19 games without Romeu Chelsea have a +7 goal difference (average GD of 0.36/game), allowing 24 goals (1.26/game) and scoring 31 goals (1.60/game) in these matches.

Not only do Chelsea have a goal difference of more than three times as much in matches Romeu has played in, but they also allow over half a goal less per game and ironically scoring has actually increased by 16% when Romeu plays any part of the match.

With these stats alone you could make a pretty strong argument that Chelsea are better when Romeu is on the pitch, but when you look at the stats below it’s an easy call…

Chelsea have an 82% win percentage (9W 1D 1L) when Romeu players full 90 minutes of a match and only a 38% win percentage (12W 10D 8L) when he doesn’t.

When Romeu plays the full 90 minutes Chelsea have scored 22 goals (2 goals/game), conceded only 6 (0.55 goals/game) and have a goal difference of 16 (1.45 goals/game).

In the 30 games Romeu hasn’t played the full match Chelsea have scored 50 goals (1.67/gm), conceded 36 goals (1.2/gm) and have a goal difference of only 14 goals (0.47/gm).

Yes, that’s correct, Chelsea have a better goal difference in the 11 games Romeu has played the full 90 minutes in than the 30 where he hasn’t. Simply amazing, not to mention Chelsea have allowed twice as many goals per game in the same situation.

I don’t care what the reason is for Romeu riding the pine lately at Chelsea, be it his ever looming and confusing buy-back clause with Barcelona, respect for more “senior” players, or even the return of Michael Essien, there needs to be a place for Oriol Romeu in the starting 11 of Chelsea. He’s earned it.

 

The Demise of Andre Villas-Boas

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Andre Villas-Boas was sacked earlier today, the 5th manager to leave the club since Jose Mourinho was axed on September 19th, 2007 (not including Ray Wilkins who managed 1 game). Of these managers, AVB had the worst winning percentage…

…and it wasn’t even close. A full 10% separated AVB from the last Chelsea manager who didn’t make it a full season, Phil Scolari. (stats courtesy of thechels.co.uk)

Another shocking stat is the goal difference per game of Chelsea under AVB – a meager 0.63 which is less than half of the difference under Ancelotti and 75% less than the next worse Chelsea manager (Hiddink – 1.09). The stats are clear even though some may disagree with the decision – AVB did not have Chelsea playing anywhere close to the same level as his predecessors.

So how exactly did the demise of AVB happen? Let’s recap his time at the club…

June 22, 2011 – Chelsea pay Porto £13.3m in compensation to land AVB, fans rejoice. Some are hopeful he can have a 20 year run at the club – he didn’t last 20 months or even half of that.

August 2011 – AVB, unlike some managers before him, attempts to plan for the long-term future of Chelsea by signing the likes of Juan Mata, Oriol Romeu, and Romelu Lukaku – the first 2 have been solid first-team players, the latter still only 18 with the physique and upside to be one of the best strikers in the world.

September 2011 – After going undefeated in the first 5 matches under AVB, Chelsea lost 3-1 to United on September 18th. It was their only loss of the month.

October 2011 – Chelsea lose only once in the month of October (against QPR with 9 men) until October 29th, when they lose to Arsenal 5-3.

November 2011 – Anelka starts his last “real” game for Chelsea in a 1-1 draw against Genk on November 1st, Alex on November 5th against Blackburn. This is where I think AVB really started to lose the locker room after he froze out two players who were not only key members of the club’s success in the past but also highly respected by senior players. Chelsea won only 39% (9 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses) of their matches after the win against Blackburn, down from 59% (10 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses) before this date.

December 2011 – After a 2-0 defeat on November 29th to Liverpool, Chelsea replace Fernando Torres with Didier Drogba who rejuvenates Chelsea, guiding them to convincing wins against Newcastle (3-0), Valencia (3-0), and Manchester City (2-1). Drogba scored 3 goals combined in these matches. After a shock draw to Wigan and a respectable draw to Spurs, Drogba left for the Africa Cup of Nations and Chelsea lost all momentum, losing 3-1 against Aston Villa at the end of the month.

Romeu pass accuracy king

Oriol Romeu is still the most accurate passer this season for Chelsea, having completed 764 of his 830 pass attempts (92.4%). (PL&CL)

Romeu backs Torres

“People used to say that if Torres doesn’t score then he is not playing good, but that is not true.” – Oriol Romeu (CFC Official)