Do Penalties Hurt Messi’s 86 Goal Record?

Anyone who knows me knows that I’m a huge fan of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and not the biggest supporter of Lionel Messi. Recently, Zlatan has come out and tried to minimize the accomplishment of Messi breaking Gerd Muller’s record by scoring 86 goals in a calendar year by saying the following:

“I too would get 90 goals if I were given penalties as referees give them away to Barcelona.”

Approximately 16% (14 out of 86) of Messi’s goals came from the penalty spot in 2012. How does this percentage compare to the rest of the modern game? Let’s take a look at some totals for some of the best goalscorers so far in the 2012/2013 season…

With only one out of Messi’s 28 goals this season coming from the penalty spot, the statement by Ibrahimovic looks foolish. The big Swede should have checked his facts before making such a remark.

What is really surprising though is the high percentage of penalty goals for Falcao this season, a number which was at 45.5% until his five goal outburst yesterday. He already has scored off of six penalties this season, matching his entire total from the penalty spot last season (36 total goals scored last season, 16.7%). Take note, big spending clubs.

Cavani with already five penalties this season is also just one off of his mark from last season (6 penalties, 33 goals, 18.2%) and Ronaldo’s mark of 21.1% is actually pretty consistent with his percentage from last season (14 penalties scored, 59 goals, 23.7%).

One striker that really stands out as being underrated looking at these statistics is Stephan El Sharrawy, having scored 15 goals from open play (zero penalties) – a total more than Falcao, Cavani, Ibrahimovic, and Van Persie. Given the fact he is only 20 years old, he could really be a player to watch for the future. If he took penalties for Milan and had a penalty goal percentage on the level of a Cavani he could easily be on his way to a 40 goal season.

In conclusion, with only 16% of Messi’s 86 goals coming from the penalty spot I would be hesitant to tarnish his record because the percentage is fairly in-line with some of the top scorers in the game today. Given the fact that 12 of Gerd Muller’s goals in his 85 goals were scored in a “fund raiser Cup” and he scored zero from the penalty spot, I’d say Muller’s 12 Cup goals and Messi’s 14 penalties essentially cancel themselves out.

RVP – Best “Out and Out” Striker?

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Some people have called Robin van Perise the best “out and out” striker in the world. Here’s why I disagree with this notion:

Health —- When Van Persie plays he makes an impact, no question. But how often does he play? Last season was just the second time Van Persie appeared in more than 45 games in his entire career, which has likely hit its growth peak at 28 years old. It’s no secret as players age they often become more injury prone and this is a big concern for suitors of RVP.

Finishing —- Van Persie led the Premier League in scoring last year with 30 goals. While it’s an impressive total, it should be noted that it took him 174 shots to reach that total (the most in the league by 17 shots), or 1 goal for every 5.8 shots. Comparing him to the likes of Ibrahimovic (28 goals, 141 shots, 1 goal every 5 shots) and Cavani (23 goals, 123 shots, 1 goal every 5.3 shots) his goal rate looks less impressive with other proclaimed “top strikers” who played in the Serie A last season where tactics are generally more defensive and fewer goals are allowed.

Recent Form —- In the modern era of football where major tournaments make big contracts you’re often only as good as your recent performances. In competitive matches for club and country, RVP has scored only 5 times in his last 1245 minutes on the pitch, or a goal every 249 minutes played. Having taken 66 shots in these 1245 minutes, that’s a goal approximately every 13 shots. I understand players have dips in form but Van Persie’s timing with his lack of form may cost him millions.

While Van Persie is certainly in the discussion for the best “out and out” striker in the world in my opinion he currently doesn’t fit the bill.

Ibrahimovic is a club success

Zlatan Ibrahimovic has won 7 consecutive league title with clubs he has played on (Juventus, Inter, Barcelona, Milan).