The Mystery of Salomon Kalou

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Few Chelsea players in recent memory have polarized the opinions Chelsea fans like Salomon Kalou. One moment Kalou is the hero for scoring a goal in a big game and the next hordes of fans are looking to run him out of town for blasting one too many over the bar. Some fans think he has a bright future with the club if given a legitimate chance, others don’t want anything to do with him. So who is right? Let’s break down some stats in attempt to help solve the mystery of Salomon Kalou…

Chelsea have won the last 10 games Kalou has scored and Kalou holds the best goal to start ratio (5 goals in 8 starts, or 63%) of any Chelsea player this season.

Certainly Kalou has done well in his limited chances this season. In all competitions this season Chelsea are undefeated (10W 5D 0L) in matches Kalou has played in and have a +20 goal difference. While some of those victories and draws may have had little to do with Kalou as he came on as a substitute, it’s an interesting stat to note, even if it is somewhat coincidental.

Chelsea have won 58% of the games Kalou has played in over the past two seasons (55 appearances – 32 wins, 12 draws, 11 losses), a 13% increase over the games Kalou has not had any part in (45% win percentage – 44 games, 20 wins, 11 draws, 13 losses).

Giving Kalou a larger sample size of games due to his lack of selections this season I decided to compare results from both this season AND last season – taking away the games from this season (including the 10 out 15 wins when Kalou plays) the gap of games won with/without does narrow but is still in favor of Kalou (55% win percentage when he played, 50% win percentage when he didn’t).

I receive questions all the time on Twitter (@alrickbrown) on who should and shouldn’t start for Chelsea – one of more frequently asked questions over the past few weeks has been should Chelsea play Kalou or Sturridge on the wing…

Kalou has played 2695 minutes over the past two seasons and has averaged a goal (17 total) for every 159 minutes played, a per goal scoring rate 66 minutes better than Daniel Sturridge (11 goals in 2480 minutes this season – 225 minutes per goal). Kalou also averages an assist (6) every 171 minutes more than Sturridge (4).

If you’re going by goals and assists alone, given the poor form of Sturridge (no goals OR assists since December 2011) on paper Kalou should get the nod. Couple this with the undefeated record the team has when Kalou plays and the case for his spot in the starting 11 of Chelsea gets even stronger.

While I’m not saying Kalou is a must-start I feel some of his criticism isn’t always deserved and that given the poor form of the players he competes with for playing time (Malouda, Sturridge) I would not be opposed to see him play in more matches this season under Roberto Di Matteo. While Kalou’s contract does expire at the end of the year Chelsea should be focusing on the immediate right now given their record in the Premier League and less about the future.

3 Comments

  1. CFCDiscussions

    This is sort of flawed in the points thing, because Kalou was only played against far weaker teams and therefore we were winning more, and he was scoring more, whilst Sturridge was playing in all the big games against better teams with that being harder both for him to score and the team to win

    1. Anonymous

      Sturridge has had his share of “cupcake” opponents as well, it usually evens out over time especially as Chelsea have played more than 50 games at this point in the season.

  2. Sean I

    Kalou really frustrates me because at times he’s brilliant with his positioning at more recently defensive covering but also he wastes so many chances and his pace seems to have diminished a fair bit. Don’t get me wrong, I DON’T want sturridge to play but maybe play Rami on the wing for now before signing someone in the summer (looks like it will be Marin). As Kalou’s contract is up I think he would be a snap for most prem clubs, I just hope he doesn’t go to arsenal or spurs and haunt us for not playing him regularly

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